We conduct a thorough analysis on the role played by the unobserved systematic risk factor in default prediction. We find that this latent factor outweighs the observed systematic risk factors and can substantially improve the in-sample predictive accuracy at the firm, rating group, and...

This study examines the distribution of extreme values in daily currency changes for nine Asian countries. Using an improved estimator, extreme changes in Asian currencies can generally be represented by Frechet distributions. Our results are robust to the choice of the numeraire currency, the...