A comprehensive and in-depth look at exchange-rate dynamicsVariations in the foreign exchange market influence all aspects of the world economy, and understanding these dynamics is one of the great challenges of international economics. This book provides a new, comprehensive, and in-depth...

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the...

When information about fundamentals is symmetric, can information-based trade still arise? Consider bond and foreign exchange (FX) markets, where private information about nominal cash flows is generally absent, but participants are convinced that superior information exists. We analyze a class...

This paper studies the effects of financial integration on macroeconomic volatility and welfare. We examine a two-sector(tradable and nontradable), two-country world economy with production in which both stocks and bonds are traded internationally, but markets are incomplete. The effects of...

This paper presents an exchange rate model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic determinants, the model includes a determinant from the field of microstructure financeorder flow. Order flow is a determinant because it conveys information. This is a radically different...