This paper analyses the factors influencing the price of oil and its likely evolution over the next quarter century. It begins by investigating the fundamental forces shaping long-term oil price developments, highlighting the importance of growth-led demand for oil, particularly that emanating...

In December 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a G7-led coalition of countries imposed a $60 per barrel price cap on the sales of Russian oil that use western services. This paper provides a theoretical and quantitative analysis of this new tool. We build a tractable equilibrium model...

This paper evaluates changes in fuel procurement practices by coal and gas-fired power plants in the United States following state-level legislation that ended cost-of-service regulation of electricity generation. I find that deregulated plants substantially reduce the price paid for coal (but...

Technological innovations in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have enabled tremendous amounts of natural gas to be extracted profitably from underground shale formations that were long thought to be uneconomical. In this paper, we provide the first estimates of broad-scale welfare...

The petroleum refining industry has changed over the past decades from one in which capacity primarily served local and regional markets to one in which trade in refined petroleum products has become more widespread. We investigate the hypothesis of increasing globalization by examining the...

This study analyzes industrial interfuel substitution in an international context using a large unbalanced panel dataset of 63 countries. We find that compared to other countries fossil fuel producing economies have higher short-term interfuel substitution elasticities. This difference increases...

Using monthly data from 1994 to 2013 we study the long-run relation of the pre-tax retail prices of gasoline with crude price and the nominal exchange rate. We find a strongly significant long-run relation. We then use the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model to assess the asymmetries on both the short-...

The continuing increases in oil prices have renewed the argument over the real culprits behind these movements. The growth in demand for oil in international markets, especially from the United States and China, is often identified as the main source of consumption pressure on prices, and thus...

Beginning in early 2011, crude oil production in the U.S. Midwest and Canada surpassed the pipeline capacity to transport it to the Gulf Coast where it could access the world oil market. As a result, the U.S. "benchmark" crude oil price in Cushing, Oklahoma, declined substantially relative to...

Despite widespread application of real options theory in the literature, the extent to which firms actually delay irreversible investments following an increase in the uncertainty of their environment is not empirically well-known. This paper estimates firms' responsiveness to changes in...