This paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in G-7 countries. Our models use the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP. We examine data admissibility by determining whether these models have the...

We study the joint determination of the lag length, the dimension of the cointegrating space and the rank of the matrix of short-run parameters of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model using model selection criteria. We suggest a new two-step model selection procedure which is a hybrid of...

Dynamic regression equations are estimated for each beef cattle breeding herd and beef cattle inventories at two levels of aggregation, the U.S. and Montana. The analysis for Montana was utilized as a guide for specification of the national equation to reduce the inference problem associated...

The focus of this paper is the impact on welfare measurement of a common assumption in applied demand analysis, weak separability. A standard empirical practice is to estimate conditional demand models for a set of goods which are assumed to be weakly separable from all other goods with...

A theoretical framework based on economics is provided for assessing tourism's costs and benefits. Suppose that resources utilized by tourists are owned by residents and, as marketed goods or services, are priced efficiently. Then increased tourism promotes net average (i.e., Pareto) economic...

Fixed effects vector decomposition (FEVD) is simply an instrumental variables (IV) estimator with a particular choice of instruments and a special case of the well-known Hausman-Taylor IV procedure. Plümper and Troeger (PT) now acknowledge this point and disown the three-stage procedure that...