The efficient market theory of the term structure (expectations theory plus rational expectations) is tested using cointegration methods and a long time span of historical data. The data are from eighteenth century England. The data set is intriguing in that it covers many sub-periods of...

There is considerable evidence from industrial countries that the output gap is an important determinant of inflation. This paper examines whether the gap model also works in developing, newly industrializing, and industrial Asian economies. The output gaps are based on a nonparametric...

This study uses the fiscal expansion and consolidation experiences of the industrial countries over the period 1970 to 1995 to examine the interplay between fiscal adjustments and economic performance. A key finding is that fiscal consolidation need not trigger an economic slowdown, especially...

We use unobserved components methodology to establish an Australasian common cycle, and assess the extent to which region-specific cycles of Australian states and New Zealand are additionally important. West Australian and New Zealand region-specific growth cycles have exhibited distinctively...