Using cointegration analysis, the authors examine long-term interactions between fiscal variables and the consumption-output and leisure-labor ratios. The motivation is to test if fiscal trends are an independent source of stochastic trends underlying the long-run behavior of real economic...

We examine the determinants of net private capital inflows to emerging market economies (EMEs) since 2002. Our main findings are: First, growth and interest rate differentials between EMEs and advanced economies and global risk appetite are statistically and economically important determinants...

The volatility of U.S. real GDP growth since 1984 has been markedlylowerthanoverthepreviousquartercentury.Weutilizefrequency-domain and VAR methods to distinguish among competing explanations for this reduction: improvements in monetary policy, better business practices, and a fortuitous...

The authors estimate a dynamic two-country model in which economic fluctuations are driven by a worldwide supply shock; country-specific supply shocks; and relative fiscal, money, and preference shocks. Identification is achieved using only long-run restrictions based on a theoretical model. The...

This paper examines some key propositions of real business cycle theory using a small open-economy framework and a structural vector autoregressive methodology. Identification is achieved by long-run restrictions. The main results from the Canadian economy are that domestic supply shocks are...