In this paper, it is proposed to modify autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) processes by introducing an additional parameter to comply with the criticism of Hauser et al . (1999) that ARFIMA processes are not appropriate for the estimation of persistence, because of...

This paper proposes a modification of an optimal test for cycles in multiple time series and applies it to test the hypothesis that there is a relationship between stock returns and the phases of the moon. No significant relationship is found, which is in line with the evidence from descriptive...

This paper extends an optimal frequency domain test for the detection of synchronous patterns in multiple time series to the case of fuzzy patterns, which are not confined to single frequencies or narrow frequency bands. Applying this extension to corn futures with different delivery dates, we...

This paper first reduces the problem of detecting structural breaks in a random walk to that of finding the best subset of explanatory variables in a regression model and then tailors various subset selection criteria to this specific problem. Of particular interest are those new criteria, which...

It is shown that in the linear normal regression model asymptotically the expected value of the penalty term implied by the Akaike-BIC can, under certain circumstances, be smaller than that implied by the AIC. Consequences for consistency are discussed.

Based on a reparametrization of the Gaussian density and a natural prior for the parameters, a Bayesian model selection criterion is derived, which differs from Schwarz' (1978) criterion by a term which does not vanish as the sample size increases.