This study tests whether changes in the short-term interest rate can best be modelled in a non-linear fashion. We argue that there are good theoretical and empirical reasons for adopting this strategy. Using monthly data from several industrialized countries, namely Canada, Germany, Sweden,...

The authors search for a long-run cointegrating relationship among real money balances, real income, and interest rates, extending the work of Steve Ambler and Algin Paquet (1990), who explore this issue in the Canadian context employing the methods of Robert F. Engle and Clive W. Granger...

The Ricardian equivalence proposition and the permanent income hypothesis are tested in an intertemporal consumption model with rational expectations. The representative consumer incorporates the government budget constraint. An alternative hypothesis of incomplete tax discounting is nested...

We construct a DSGE-VAR model for competing head to head with the long history of published forecasts of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. We also construct a Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior for forecast comparison. The DSGE-VAR model combines a structural DSGE model with a statistical...

Abstract We apply a suite of models to produce quasi-real-time density forecasts of Norwegian GDP and inflation, and evaluate different combination and selection methods using the Kullback-Leibler information criterion (KLIC). We use linear and logarithmic opinion pools in conjunction with...

We construct a DSGE-VAR model for competing head to head with the long history of published forecasts of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. We also construct a Bayesian VAR model with a Minnesota prior for forecast comparison. The DSGE-VAR model combines a structural DSGE model with a statistical...