This article evaluates the density forecasts of inflation published by the Bank of England and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. It extends the analysis of the Bank of England’s fan charts in an earlier article by considering data up to 2003, quarter 4, and by...

The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Bank of England, Barclays Bank pic, Ernst and Young LLP, GlaxoSmithKline, Marks and Spencer plc, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (Europe) Ltd, Morley Fund Management, The National Grid Company pic, Nomura Research...

We construct a framework for evaluating the macroeconomic impact on the UK economy of policies that are aimed at reducing the number of people receiving social security benefits by helping them into employment. By means of model simulation we evaluate the gains to the economy in terms of output,...