The results of this paper complement the recent findings of real exchange rates as stationary processes. The standard procedure of applying a battery of unit root tests can be problematic since the tests are sensitive to the specifics of the time-series process. The novelty of the approach we...

Forecasting exchange rate movements is challenging, as they exhibit high volatility, complexity and noise. Most traditional models cannot forecast exchange rates, with significantly higher accuracy, than a random walk model. In this study, a non-linear model called artificial neural network...

This paper examines the issue of monetary policy convergence for members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) using the Markov Switching unit root procedure. The results from the conventional unit root tests including the Dickey-Fuller and the modified Dickey-Fuller reveal that...

Similar to many other developing countries Bangladesh, which is the country of my concern, has been pursuing an active exchange rate policy basically to maintain a viable external account position, and competitiveness of its products in world market. The purpose of the study is, therefore, to...

This paper provides evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects on trade for six different types of exchange rate regime transitions, utilizing data on 218,643 country-pair-year observations all together. Previous research mainly focused on the currency union effect on trade and widely assumed...

This paper introduces a new family of portmanteau tests for serial correlation. Using the wavelet transform, we decompose the variance of the underlying process into the variance of its low frequency and of its high frequency components and we design a variance ratio test of no serial...

In this paper, we forecast excess stock returns of S&P 500 index from January 1997 to December 2012 using both well-known traditional macroeconomic indicators and oil market variables. Based on a dynamic model selection approach, we find that the forecasting accuracy can be improved after adding...

This study applies the threshold autoregressive (TAR) method proposed by Caner and Hansen (2001) to test the validity of long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) in 14 transition countries, using monthly real effective exchange rates over the period January 1994- June 2012. The empirical results...

This paper empirically examines the effect of foreign capital inflows on domestic price levels, monetary expansion, and the exchange rate volatility for Pakistan using linear and nonlinear causality tests. The key message emerging from the analysis is that there is a significant inflationary...

This paper uses quantile regression techniques to investigate the temporal dependence patterns of major exchange rates around the globe. Specifically, we estimate quantile autoregressive models for daily exchange rate returns of the USD/EUR, USD/JPY, USD/GBP, USD/AUD, USD/CHF and USD/CAD...