This paper provides a guide to two FORTRAN programs, called TRT1.FOR and TRT2.FOR, written to run the two stages of the Ramsey and Rothman (1996) time-reversibility (TR) test. Original FORTRAN source code and executable (on an IBM-compatible PC) versions of the programs are available. The major...

Building upon Beaudry and Koop's (1993) analysis, we consider a "current depth of the recession" (CDR) variable in modeling the time-series behavior of the postwar quarterly U.S. unemployment rate. The CDR approach is consistent with the state-dependent behavior in the unemployment rate...

The problem of business-cycle symmetry is addressed within the context of time reversibility. To this effect, the authors introduce a time domain test of time reversibility, the TR test. In an application, they show that time irreversibility is the rule rather than the exception for two...

In this paper we use smooth transition vector error-correction models (STVECMs) in a simulated out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the unemployment rates of the four non-Euro G-7 countries, the U.S., the U.K., Canada, and Japan. For the U.S., pooled forecasts constructed by taking the...

This paper provides a guide to two FORTRAN programs, called TRT1.FOR and TRT2.FOR, written to run the two stages of the Ramsey and Rothman (1996) time-reversibility (TR) test. Original FORTRAN source code and executable (on an IBM-compatible PC) versions of the programs are available. The major...

Building upon Beaudry and Koop's (1993) analysis, we consider a "current depth of the recession" (CDR) variable in modeling the time-series behavior of the postwar quarterly U.S. unemployment rate. The CDR approach is consistent with the state-dependent behavior in the unemployment rate...