This paper investigates the role of credit supply shocks in driving the weakness in UK banks’ lending and economic activity during the various UK financial crises since 1966. It uses a structural VAR analysis to identify credit supply shocks separately from standard macroeconomic shocks. It...

The recent financial crisis has reignited interest in the role of money and credit in driving economic activity. This article takes a broad overview of the historical data available for assessing the link between money, credit and activity, using the quantity theory of money as an organising...

1. Introduction -- 2. Business, Monetary and Credit Cycles in Theory -- 3. Statistical and Econometric Analysis of the Cycle -- 4. GDP data for Analysing Business Cycles -- 5. Metrics and Turning Points of Cycles 1660-2018 -- 6. A Narrative History of UK Business Cycles -- 7. Conclusions

We show how the prospect of disputes over firms' revenue reports promotes debt financing over equity. This is demonstrated in a costly state verification model with a risk‐averse entrepreneur. The prospect of disputes encourages incentive contracts that limit penalties and avoid stochastic...