We study forecasts of real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies over the period 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual-level...

Between 1995 and 2005, the German economy has experienced a phase of weak economic growth. We analyze whether this weak growth performance can be attributed to the stance of monetary conditions during that period. We show that the real effective exchange rate did have almost no dampening effects...

Based on a large international panel of surveyed GDP forecasts I analyze the frequency of forecast revisions and the factors that influence the likelihood of forecast revisions. I find that each month on average 40%–50% of forecasters revise their forecasts. In addition, I find that the...

We investigate determinants of disagreement—cross-sectional dispersion of individual forecasts—about key economic indicators. Disagreement about economic activity, in particular about GDP growth, has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about prices: inflation and interest rates....

We analyze the international transmission of financial stress and its effects on global economic activity. Our analysis is based on country-specific monthly financial stress indices (FSIs) over the sample period 1970–2012 for 20 major economies. First, we show that co-movement between the FSIs...

Purpose – The paper is to understand how the financial system is influenced by macroeconomic shocks and how the financial stance, in turn, feeds back into the macroeconomic environment is key for policy makers. The most recent financial crisis has demonstrated the need for a deeper...

We investigate the relevance of Carroll's sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). In contrast to the most rational expectation models, households in the sticky information environment update their...