Showing 1 - 10 of 27
Rules-based monetary policy evaluation has long been central to macroeconomics. Using the original Taylor rule, a modified Taylor rule with a higher output gap coefficient, and an estimated Taylor rule, we define rules-based and discretionary eras by smaller and larger policy rule deviations,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011117350
Using a difference-in-differences estimation framework and state-level data, we investigate the potential role of HIV/AIDS in contributing to declining abortion utilization in the United States. Our results suggest that the perceived risk of HIV contraction negatively affected unwanted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010760714
Can US monetary policy in the 1970s be described by a stabilizing Taylor rule when policy is evaluated with real-time inflation and output gap data? Using economic research on the full employment level of unemployment and the natural rate of unemployment published between 1970 and 1977 to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010875196
We first show that the recent success of modern macroeconomic models in forecasting nominal exchange rates, evaluated using the Clark and West (2006) inference procedure, is partly due to the presence of the constant term (drift), in addition to the economic fundamentals. We then model the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051439
The role of foreign capital inflow, foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI), on export behavior of both recipients and non-recipient competing firms in the same sector often guides economic development policy. By using panel data of Indian IT firms over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011148575
We argue that the U.S.-led global recession revealed a change in the nature of the U.S. economic influence over the world, evidenced by the unusual delay between the U.S. downturn and its full manifestation in other economies. To validate our argument we conduct a real-time analysis of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008522606
Using real-time data that reflects information available to monetary authorities at the time they are formulating policy, we find that estimated Taylor rules based on revised and real-time data differ more for Germany than for the U.S., Taylor rules using real-time data suggest differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005180866
Estimating the effect of trade on capital flows is difficult given the inherent identification problem. We use fluctuations in rainfall to capture the exogenous variation in trade between Germany, France, the U.K., and the Ottoman Empire during 1859-1913. The provisionistic policy of the Ottoman...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009283394
We look at how well several alternative Taylor-rule specifications describe Federal Reserve policy decisions in real time, using the newly developed Giacomini and Rossi (2007) test for non-nested model selection in the presence of (possible) parameter instability. Further, we isolate those...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008872482
Estimating the effect of trade on capital flows is difficult given the inherent identification problem. We use fluctuations in rainfall to capture the exogenous variation in trade between Germany, France, the U.K., and the Ottoman Empire during 1859-1913. The provisionistic policy of the Ottoman...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008634681