This article identifies the best models for forecasting the volatility of daily exchange returns of developing countries. An emerging consensus in the recent literature focusing on industrialized countries has noted the superior performance of the Fractionally Integrated Generalized...

The four papers which follow were written for a conference organised by the National Institute on 24 February. The papers draw on some of the major developments in macroeconomic research and policy appraisal at the Institute over the last two or three years. Particular emphasis is placed on the...