The Federal Reserve Greenbook forecasts of real GDP, inflation and unemployment are analysed for the period 1974-1997. We consider whether these forecasts exhibit systematic bias, and whether efficient use is made of information, that is, whether revisions to these forecasts over time are...

Using the Carlson and Parkin (1975) framework and employing the Pesaran–Timmermann (1992) Predictive Failure statistic, we evaluate several consensus forecast series from CESIfo's World Economic Survey. Several issues are examined related to interpreting qualitative survey responses. We define...

Germany's export market share increased since 2000, while most industrial countries experienced declines. This study explores four explanations and evaluates their empirical contributions: (i) improved cost competitiveness, (ii) ties to fast growing trading partners, (iii) increased demand for...

We show that systematic forecast errors reveal that the Fed is "surprised" by real and inflationary cycles. The Fed knows the state of the economy for the current quarter, but cannot predict it one-quarter ahead.

Campbell and Vuolteenaho (CV, 2004) empirically decompose the S&P 500's dividend yield from 1927 to 2002 to derive a measure of residual mispricing attributed to inflation illusion. They argue that the strong positive correlation between the mispricing component and inflation is strong evidence...

Given the secular and sharp rise in oil prices over the past decade, this study analyses the impact that the spike in oil prices has on tanker rates. We investigate a dynamic model explaining spot tanker rates. The magnitude of the impact of oil prices on the shipping industry, in terms of the...

1. Executive Summary -- 2. Literature Review -- 3. Theoretical Framework and Stylized Facts -- 4. KGEMM Methodology -- 5. Database -- 6. A Brief History and Structure of KGEMM -- 7. KGEMM Behavioral Equations and Identities -- 8. KGEMM Simulations.