We develop a model for valuing revenue streams from innovations. The stochastic properties of revenue from innovations create a more difficult environment in which to value options than when the underlying is a security. There is no initial revenue, and cumulative revenue cannot decrease....

We use realized volatility to study the influence of Japanese central bank interventions on the yen-to-dollar exchange rate. A system of equations for returns, logarithmic realized volatility, and interventions provides a comprehensive view on the problem without endogeneity bias, unlike earlier...

The US economy has experienced substantial fluctuations in real and nominal interest rates since the 1970s. This article investigates empirically the relationship between home mortgage loans and volatility in mortgage rates for the period 1971:02 to 2003:03. Contrary to common wisdom, we find a...

This article shows that bagging can improve the forecast accuracy of time series models for realized volatility. We consider 23 stocks from the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the sample period 1995 to 2005 and employ two different forecast models, a log-linear specification in the spirit of...

Dynamic factor models (DFM) constitute an active and growing area of research, both in econometrics, in macroeconomics, and in finance. Many applications lie at the center of policy questions raised by the recent financial crises, such as the connections between yields on government debt, credit...