The basic inability of standard theoretical models to generate a sufficiently large and variable nominal bond risk premium has been termed the "bond premium puzzle." We show that the term premium on long-term bonds in the canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used in...

The term premium in standard macroeconomic DSGE models is far too small and stable relative to the data—an example of the "bond premium puzzle." However, in endowment economy models, researchers have generated reasonable term premiums by assuming investors have recursive Epstein-Zin...

Frontmatter -- Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- PART I: INTRODUCTION -- 1. Questions about Business Cycles -- PART II: BUSINESS CYCLE DURATIONS -- 2. Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized? -- 3. Shorter Recessions and Longer Expansions -- 4. A Nonparametric Investigation of...

I separately identify and estimate the effects of the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate, forward guidance, and large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) policies on the U.S. economy. I extend the high-frequency identification strategy of Bauer and Swanson (2023b) for monetary policy VARs by allowing...