The purpose of the paper is to analyse the accuracy and usefulness of household subjective forecasts of personal finance. We use non-parametric directional analysis to assess the subjective forecasts which are based on qualitative judgments. Using the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) we are...

The present paper investigates the cyclical nature of Consumer Sentiments Indices (CSIs) for the US and UK. Using Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models the empirical analysis indicates that the US CSI is mean reverting but adjusts asymmetrically and downwardly rigid.

Political business cycle theories in modelling the interaction between the polity and the economic system have continually failed to consider questions of economic and political interdependence between nations. In considering the current principal political business cycle models we ask how the...

This paper studies the distributive impact of institutional change in developing countries. In such economies, property rights systems may preserve the interests of an influential minority, who can control key-markets, access to assets and investment opportunities, especially if they enjoy...

In this paper we use a behavioural approach to studying household consumption behaviour in Malawi. In particular we are interested to know whether households use mental accounting when consuming different categories of good. It is useful for assessing the impact of remittances on household...