1. Nonlinearity in Stochastic Processes: What it Is and Why it Matters -- 2. Detecting Nonlinear Serial Dependence -- 3. How to Run the Toolkit Program on a PC -- 4. Artificially Generated Data: Size Considerations -- 5. Artificially Generated Data: Power And Model Specification Considerations...

It is often unclear whether time series displaying substantial persistence should be modelled as a vector autoregression in levels (perhaps with a trend term) or in differences. The impact of this decision on inference is examined here using Monte Carlo simulation. In particular, the size and...