Knowledge of the one-month interest rate is useful in forecasting the sign, as well as the variance, of the excess return on stocks. The services of a portfolio manager who makes use of the forecasting model to shift funds between bills and stocks would be worth an annual management fee of 2...

We present a trend-based alternative to the standard first-order autoregression model in persistence of profits studies. This is motivated by reservations over the interpretation of the standard model, and rests on a different concept of dynamic competition. A nine-category taxonomy of long-run...

Negotiation in violent international conflict has not often been studied using systematic large-N comparisons. This article utilizes an original dataset of international disputes and negotiation efforts occurring in the 1945-95 period to assess the character of international negotiation and to...

Over the next few decades, the rapid aging of populations in Europe, Japan, and North America threatens the stability of the world’s major economies. A determined push for reform can still avert fiscal and economic crisis. But the time for corrective action is running out. And the problem is...