We study a dynamic model of opinion formation in social networks. In our model, boundedly rational agents update opinions by averaging over their neighbors’ expressed opinions, but may misrepresent their own opinion by conforming or counter-conforming with their neighbors. We show that an...

We introduce a model for stock prices consisting of a fundamental price process and a news impact curve, which allows for either overreaction, underreaction, or correct response to changes of the fundamental value. We further develop statistics based on OHLC data, which separately measure upside...

Using the Baker et al. (2013) index of policy uncertainty for six developed countries, this paper estimates spillovers of policy uncertainty. We find that spillovers account for slightly more than one-fourth of the dynamics of policy uncertainty in these countries, with this share rising to one...

Die Bedeutung von Derivaten für Anleger auf Finanzmärkten nimmt zu. Gleichzeitig wird es immer wichtiger, bei der Entscheidung über Kauf und Verkauf derartiger Titel die Unsicherheit der zukünftigen Preisentwicklung zu berücksichtigen. Die Annahmen, die den bei der Analyse derartiger...