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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014288865
Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011065745
In this note, I consider a general class of unobserved components (UC) models and derive a relevant inequality. This inequality implies that either of the two assumptions of standard UC models, namely, a random walk trend and uncorrelated shocks, is not satisfied if the impulse response measure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005296911
This paper investigates the spurious effect in forecasting asset returns when signals from technical trading rules are used as predictors. Against economic intuition, the simulation result shows that, even if past information has no predictive power, buy or sell signals based on the difference...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010664685
In this article, we develop the asymptotic theory of Hwang and Basawa (2005) for explosive random coefficient autoregressive (ERCA) models. Applying the theory, we prove that a locally best invariant (LBI) test in McCabe and Tremayne (1995), which is for the null of a unit root (UR) process...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008474322
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012272414
This article evaluates the predictive performance of variance risk premiums (VRPs) in Japan on the Nikkei 225 returns, credit spreads, and the composite index of coincident indicators. Different monthly VRPs, such as expected and ex-post VRPs, are measured by using model-free implied and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010794003
Japan has experienced turbulent behavior of land prices after World War II, especially after 1985. This paper first examines the explanatory power of a simple present-value model and shows its limitation. We then investigate two additional (not mutually exclusive) factors affecting the Japanese...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005829220
Realized volatility, which is the sum of squared intraday returns over a certain interval such as a day, has recently attracted the attention of financial economists and econometricians as an accurate measure of the true volatility. In the real market, however, the presence of non-trading hours...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005118419
A new efficient simulation smoother and disturbance smoother are introduced for asymmetric stochastic volatility models where there exists a correlation between today's return and tomorrow's volatility. The state vector is divided into several blocks where each block consists of many state...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005130808