This Paper is the result of the Bank of Italy-CEPR project to construct a monthly coincident indicator of the business cycle of the euro area. The index is estimated on the basis of a harmonized data set of monthly statistics of the euro area (951 series) which we constructed from a variety of...

Factor model methods recently have become extremely popular in the theory and practice of large panels of time series data. Those methods rely on various factor models which all are particular cases of the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) introduced in Forniet al. (2000). That paper,...

We propose rank-based estimators of principal components, both in the one-sample and, under the assumption of <italic>common principal components</italic>, in the <italic>m</italic>-sample cases. Those estimators are obtained via a rank-based version of Le Cam's one-step method, combined with an estimation of <italic>cross-information...</italic>

Classical estimation techniques for linear models either are inconsistent, or perform rather poorly, under α-stable error densities; most of them are not even rate-optimal. In this paper, we propose an original one-step R-estimation method and investigate its asymptotic performances under...

We consider the problem of detecting unobserved heterogeneity, that is, the problem of testing the absence of random individual effects in an n×T panel. We establish a local asymptotic normality property–with respect to intercept, regression coefficient, the scale parameter σ of the error,...

High-dimensional time series may well be the most common type of dataset in the so-called “big data” revolution, and have entered current practice in many areas, including meteorology, genomics, chemometrics, connectomics, complex physics simulations, biological and environmental research,...

An asymptotic distribution theory is developed for a general class of signed-rank serial statistics, and is then used to derive asymptotically locally optimal tests (in the maximin sense) for testing an ARMA model against other ARMA models. Special cases yield Fisher-Yates, van der Waerden, and...

This paper proposes a factor model with infinite dynamics and nonorthogonal idiosyncratic components. The model, which we call the generalized dynamic-factor model, is novel to the literature and generalizes the static approximate factor model of Chamberlain and Rothschild (1983), as well as the...

This paper proposes nonparametric inference methods for the first-order autoregressive process. The problem studied is to test any hypothesis stating that the autocorrelation coefficient has a given value . We consider the family of tests based on rank autocorrelations from the model transformed...

This Paper proposes a new forecasting method that exploits information from a large panel of time series. The method is based on the generalized dynamic factor model proposed in Forni, Hallin, Lippi, and Reichlin (2000), and takes advantage of the information on the dynamic covariance structure...