We propose a method for measuring the systemic importance of interconnected banks. In order to capture contributions to system-wide risk, our measure accounts fully for the extent to which a bank (i) propagates shocks across the system and (ii) is vulnerable to propagated shocks. An empirical...

Why should risk management systems account for parameter uncertainty? In addressing this question, the paper lets an investor in a credit portfolio face non-diversifiable uncertainty about two risk parameters - probability of default and asset-return correlation - and calibrates this uncertainty...

AbstractThe following sections are included:IntroductionData and MethodologyFrequency-based filter analysisTurning-point analysisCharacterizing Cycles in Individual SeriesFrequency-based filter analysis: Short-term and medium-term cyclesTurning-point analysis: Short-term and medium-term...

Ideally, early warning indicators (EWI) of banking crises should be evaluated on the basis of their performance relative to the macroprudential policy maker’s decision problem. We translate several practical aspects of this problem — such as difficulties in assessing the costs and benefits...

We critically review the state of the art in macro stress testing, assessing its strengths and weaknesses. We argue that, given current technology, macro stress tests are ill-suited as early warning devices, i.e. as tools for identifying vulnerabilities during seemingly tranquil times and for...