Cointegrated time series associated with financial and sports gambling markets are analyzed in terms of time-varying parameter models. Parameter drift is modeled in terms of lagged disequilibria. Model forecasts are intended to capitalize on periods of market inefficiency. Modeling premises are...

Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this non-random walk through financial and...