Fair (2002) argues that New Keynesian models are wrong in predicting that an inflation shock has contractionary effects only if it raises the real interest rate, and that a coefficient on inflation higher than one in the Taylor rule is a necessary condition for stability. While Fair uses his...

Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the risk-free rate puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are, in...

Chan and Cheung (1994) propose a GM approach to outlier robust estimation of threshold models. We show that their estimator can be inconsistent and extremely inefficient even when the model is correctly specified and the disturbances are normally distributed, and outline situations in which the...