A growing body of applied research on political violence employs split-population models to address problems of zero inflation in conflict event counts and related binary dependent variables. Nevertheless, conflict researchers typically use standard ordered probit models to study discrete...

This article describes a substitution model of states' responses to dissident behavior and a statistical test of some sequential hypotheses that are derived from the model. It is motivated by an interest in understanding the sequential response of states to dissident activity. That is, if...

Why would people abandon their homes in favor of an uncertain life elsewhere? The short answer, of course, is violence. More specifically, the authors contend that people monitor the violent behavior of both the government and dissidents and assess the threat such behavior poses to their lives,...

In this article, the author makes a case for expanding our focus from national-attribute studies of intranational conflict toward strategic behavior studies of intranational conflict. One payoff of such a move is that it enables us to specify a linkage between the strategic behavior of both...

An important type of medical study seeks to establish the risk factors for contracting various diseases. A similar, but very small, vein of research exists in peace and conflict studies, and we seek to contribute to it. Our study evaluates whether variables shown to explain variance in numbers...

How best to classify event counts of directed dyadic foreign policy behavior and how best to model them are points of disagreement among researchers. Should such series be modeled as unit roots ("perfect" memory) or as stationary ("short" memory)? It is demonstrated that the dichotomous choice...

Purpose The purpose of this study is to assess the ability of a theoretically motivated statistical model to accurately forecast annual, national counts of terror attacks out-of-sample. Methodology/approach Bayesian multi-level models, classification analysis, marginal calibration plots Findings...

Theoretical accounts of compliance with court orders emphasize the importance of transparency. Most empirical studies of compliance center on high profile political cases, largely ignoring the high-volume, quotidian claims against the state for basic services that constitute the largest share of...