We introduce a class of agent-based market models founded upon simple descriptions of investor psychology. Agents are subject to various psychological tensions induced by market conditions and endowed with a minimal ‘personality’. This personality consists of a threshold level for each of...

We argue that the Soros account of reflexivity does not provide a clear-cut distinction between a social science such as economics and the physical sciences. It is pointed out that the participants who attempt to learn from refutations of conjectures in the Soros world are likely to be haunted...

We continue an investigation into a class of agent-based market models that are motivated by a psychologically-plausible form of bounded rationality. Some of the agents in an otherwise efficient hypothetical market are endowed with differing tolerances to the tension caused by being in the...

The theory of optimal currency areas states that a single currency zone should have symmetry of shocks and structures across regions. Research on monetary union in Europe has either assumed these conditions to hold close enough not to cause problems, or has focussed on asymmetries in shocks. But...

The theory of optimal currency areas stresses that a single currency zone should have symmetry across shocks and structures. What happens if the monetary transmission mechanisms differ so that a common monetary policy has different effects in different places? Using a fully specified econometric...

Conventional wisdom has it that increasing price or exchange rate uncertainty will depress investment. Using the Dixit-Pindyck model, we find that there are situations where this does happen; and situations where it does not – i.e. increasing uncertainty leads to more investment. It depends...