In September 2008, a six-year-old article about the 2002 bankruptcy of United Airlines' parent company resurfaced on the Internet and was mistakenly believed to be reporting a new bankruptcy filing by the company. This episode caused the company's stock price to drop by as much as 76% in just a...

We propose regression based estimators for beta representations of dynamic asset pricing models with an affine pricing kernel specification. We allow for state variables that are cross sectional pricing factors, forecasting variables for the price of risk, and factors that are both. The...

This paper uses multilevel factor models to characterize within- and between-block variations as well as idiosyncratic noise in large dynamic panels. Block-level shocks are distinguished from genuinely common shocks, and the estimated block-level factors are easy to interpret. The framework...

type="main" <title type="main">ABSTRACT</title> <p>We document large average excess returns on U.S. equities in anticipation of monetary policy decisions made at scheduled meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the past few decades. These pre-FOMC returns have increased over time and account for sizable...</p>

We estimate impulse responses of sectoral price indexes to aggregate shocks and to sector-specific shocks. In the median sector, 100 percent of the long-run response of the sectoral price index to a sector-specific shock occurs in the month of the shock. The standard Calvo model and the standard...

This paper suggests a term structure model which parsimoniously exploits a broad macroeconomic information set. The model uses the short rate and the common components of a large number of macroeconomic variables as factors. Precisely, the dynamics of the short rate are modeled with a...

The macro risk premium measures the threshold return for real activity that receives funding from savers. The balance sheet conditions of financial intermediaries provide a window on the macro risk premium. The tightness of intermediaries’ balance sheet constraints determines their “risk...