Macroeconomic policy decisions in real-time are based on the assessment of current and future economic conditions. Crucially, these assessments are made difficult by the presence of incomplete and noisy data. The problem is more acute for emerging market economies, where most economic data are...

The opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean’s tourism industry. This study models the impact of such an opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for...

This paper extends the probabilistic debt sustainability analysis (DSA) developed by Celasun, Debrun, and Ostry (2006) to account explicitly for parameter estimation errors in the debt projection algorithm. This extension highlights public debt projection uncertainty resulting from both the...

Dealers learn about asset values as they set prices and absorb informed order flow. These flows cause inventory imbalances. This study models price setting in markets such as foreign exchange, U.S. treasury bonds, European sovereign bonds, and the London Stock Exchange, where market makers have...

This paper studies two interrelated banking sector issues in the context of the global financial crisis and its impact on Korea: (i) To what extent did state owned banks expand lending to offset declining credit as private sector bank balance sheets deteriorated? (ii) In the recent crisis, was...

The aim of this paper is to gauge the importance of foreign demand, supply and interest rate shocks on the UK economy and assess how their role has changed over time. To that end we devise a time-varying factor augmented VAR model that captures the relationship between 17 industrialised...

Using a fully specified DSGE model, this paper investigates the relationship between a central bank's policy objectives and the stabilization bias. The model is estimated using data from New Zealand. Results indicate that the size of the stabilization bias is nearly twice as large for a small...

This paper investigates the effectiveness of fiscal policy in five Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Through a small open economy structural vector autoregression model, government spending is found to have weak and largely...