Conventional procedures for calculating confidence limits of forecasts generated by statistical models provide little guidance for forecasts based on a combination or a consensus process rather than formal models, as is the case with US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts. This study...

Producers have a wide variety of risk management instruments available, making their choice(s) complex. The way producers deal with this complexity can vary and may influence the impact that the determinants, such as risk aversion, have on their choices. A recently developed choice bracketing...

This study investigates the impact of U.S. Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) reports on implied volatility in corn and soybean markets over 1985 to 2002. If WASDE reports resolve uncertainty, implied volatility should drop immediately after release...