This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain...

Two dual exchange rate regimes are compared. Under one, the official market clears through changes in international reserves. Under the other, the central bank implements a rationing scheme so as to keep international reserves constant. The paper discusses the effects on inflation, the balance...