Emerging market business cycles feature a higher variability of consumption relative to output and a strongly countercyclical trade balance. An equilibrium business cycle model in which agents learn to distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of total factor productivity...

Global and local methods used to study open-economy incomplete-markets models yield different cyclical moments, impulse responses, spectral densities and precautionary savings. Endowment and RBC model solutions obtained with first-order, higher-order, and risky-steady-state local methods are...

We explore the structural drivers of bank and nonbank credit cycles using an estimated medium-scale macro model that allows for bank and nonbank financial intermediation. We posit economy-wide aggregate and sectoral disturbances to potentially drive bank and nonbank credit growth. We find that...

This paper takes stock of the main structural reforms that Greece has undertaken since 2010, those currently proposed and that are in the process of implementation, and quantifies the medium and long‑term effects on output. Special attention is given to three issues that are relevant to...

Income is very unequally distributed in Latin America - but so too are opportunities for upward mobility. Early childhood development is a powerful mechanism to level the social playing field. More and better secondary education is key. Better administration of schools, combining greater...

o Les revenus sont très inégalement répartis en Amérique latine, de même que les possibilités de mobilité sociale ascendante. o Le développement de la petite enfance est un puissant mécanisme égalisateur du champs social. o Une éducation secondaire plus généralisée et de meilleure...

The interaction between credit frictions, financial innovation, and a switch from optimistic to pessimistic beliefs played a central role in the 2008 financial crisis. This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium framework in which this interaction drives the financial amplification...