The purpose of this study is to contrast the forecasting performance of two non-linear models, a regime-switching vector autoregressive model (RS-VAR) and a recurrent neural network (RNN), to that of a linear benchmark VAR model. Our specific forecasting experiment is U.K. inflation and we...

This paper implements a conditional version of the liquidity adjusted CAPM (LCAPM). The conditional LCAPM allows for a time-varying decomposition of the total illiquidity premium into a level component and three risk components. The estimated average annual total illiquidity premium for US...

Abstract We compare the empirical performance of a capital certain monetary services index and an index that is extended to contain assets with substantial interest rate risk, such as unit trusts, within a cointegration money demand framework for the UK. Technological changes and innovations...

The conference, 'Measurement Error: Econometrics and Practice' was recently hosted by Aston University and organised jointly by researchers from Aston University and Lund University to highlight the enormous problems caused by measurement error in Economic and Financial data which often go...

This paper examines the inflation “pass-through” problem in American monetary policy, defined as the relationship between changes in the growth rates of individual goods and the subsequent economy-wide rate of growth of consumer prices. Initial relationships are established with Granger...

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate...