Cet article étudie les effets des politiques de désin?ation sur la dynamique macroéconomique américaine. Les politiques de désin?ation sont identifiées à l?aide d?une technique d?épisode comme des chocs réduisant de façon permanente le niveau d?in?ation de long terme. Nous montrons que...

This paper studies the local dynamic properties of a simple general equilibrium model with Social vat. Strict balanced budget rules often lead to real indeterminacy of aggregate equilibrium, leaving room for « sunspots » fluctuations. In a closed-economy setup, social vat escapes this...

[eng] Estimation of the Implicit Inflation Target in the Euro Area. . Euro area countries as a whole have experienced a marked downward trend over the 1980s. Over this period, the unemployment rate has increased and economic activity has been sluggish. Changes in the implicit inflation target,...

[eng] The authors use two general-equilibrium models to assess the quantitative and dynamic impact of “ social VAT”, i.e., a tax reform that would substitute a value-added tax for employers’ social contributions. The first model is a Walrasian model with no frictions other than...

This paper assesses the time series properties of rational expectations models with news shocks. We show that news shocks allows to substantially improve the dynamic behavior of such models in generating higher persistence. We also warn the use of SVAR models to uncover news shocks.

Standard business cycle models face difficulties generating (i) government spending multipliers exceeding unity and (ii) stabilizing effects of government size. Using a simple model with externality in labor supply, we show that a sufficient degree of complementarity between aggregate and...

This paper presents the original and main contributions of T. Sargent and C. Sims to macro-economic modeling. We first briefly review the critics Sargent and Sims addressed to existing modeling. We then emphasize the originality of their two respective approaches. We finally show how their...

[eng] This article compares the performance of VAR and DSGE models. We use the maximum likelihood method to estimate the models for the growth rates of U.S. hourly labor productivity and hours worked in 1959-2003. We show that DSGE models, when they include sufficient real rigidities (such as...