We propose a framework for out-of-sample predictive ability testing and forecast selection designed for use in the realistic situation in which the forecasting model is possibly misspecified, due to unmodeled dynamics, unmodeled heterogeneity, incorrect functional form, or any combination of...

We explore convenient analytic properties of distributions constructed as mixtures of scaled and shifted t-distributions. Particularly desirable for econometric applications are closed-form expressions for antiderivatives (e.g., the cumulative density function). We illustrate the usefulness of...

This paper studies taper-based estimates of the spectral density utilizing a fixed bandwidth ratio asymptotic framework, and makes several theoretical contributions: (i) we treat multiple frequencies jointly, (ii) we allow for long-range dependence or anti-persistence at differing frequencies,...

We consider the problem of estimating the variance of the partial sums of a stationary time series that has either long memory, short memory, negative/intermediate memory, or is the first-difference of such a process. The rate of growth of this variance depends crucially on the type of memory,...