AbstractThe following sections are included:IntroductionData and MethodologyFrequency-based filter analysisTurning-point analysisCharacterizing Cycles in Individual SeriesFrequency-based filter analysis: Short-term and medium-term cyclesTurning-point analysis: Short-term and medium-term...

Ideally, early warning indicators (EWI) of banking crises should be evaluated on the basis of their performance relative to the macroprudential policy maker’s decision problem. We translate several practical aspects of this problem — such as difficulties in assessing the costs and benefits...

We critically review the state of the art in macro stress testing, assessing its strengths and weaknesses. We argue that, given current technology, macro stress tests are ill-suited as early warning devices, i.e. as tools for identifying vulnerabilities during seemingly tranquil times and for...

Most real world situations that are susceptible to herding are also characterized by direct payoff externalities. Yet, the bulk of the theoretical and experimental literature on herding has focused on pure informational externalities. In this paper we experimentally investigate the effects of...

We report results of an Internet experiment designed to test the theory of informational cascades in financial markets (Christopher Avery and Peter Zemsky, 1998). More than 6,400 subjects, including a subsample of 267 consultants from an international consulting firm, participated in the...

Credit and interest rate risk are the two most important risks faced by commercial banks in their banking book. In this paper we derive a consistent and comprehensive framework to measure the integrated impact of both risks. By taking account of the repricing characteristics of assets,...

Banks often measure credit and interest rate risk in the banking book separately and then add the risk measures to determine economic capital. This approach misses complex interactions between the two risk types. We develop a framework where these risks are analysed jointly. Since banking book...

This article provides a simulation on how the countercyclical capital buffer designed in the Basel III package could impact on bank lending. It finds that the buffer could help to reduce credit growth during booms and attenuate the credit contraction once it is released. This would help to...