This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions...

We present asymptotic and finite-sample arguments to study the spurious regression problem. This problem may be solved by introducing a lurking variable in the specification even if it is merely a proxy variable. Moreover, this approach is also valid if the lurking variable is a trending...

McCallum (2010) presented evidence that the spurious regression problem can be solved by standard means. We show using finite-sample evidence that the spurious regression problem cannot always be fixed using standard autocorrelation correction procedures and remains, therefore, a not-so-spurious...

We test the purchasing power parity hypothesis for the Mexican peso/US dollar real exchange rate using monthly data for 1969–2010. Results suggest that the real exchange rate reverts to a changing mean. These mean shifts can be explained by liberalization policies implemented during the 1980s...