We estimate rural household income uncertainties and welfare changes due to commodity price and production variability in Ghana and Peru under different scenarios for international and domestic market shocks. Uncertainties significantly affect the variability of household income, especially for...

A Bayesian model averaging approach to the estimation of lag structures is introduced and applied to assess the impact of (R&D) on agricultural productivity in the United States from 1889 to 1990. Lag and structural break coefficients are estimated using a reversible jump algorithm that...

Nonlinear adjustment toward long-run price equilibrium relationships in the sugar-ethanol-oil nexus in Brazil is examined. We develop generalized bivariate error correction models that allow for cointegration between sugar, ethanol, and oil prices, where dynamic adjustments are potentially...