The experience from the global financial crisis has raised serious concerns about the accuracy of standard risk measures as tools for the quantification of extreme downward risks. A key reason for this is that risk measures are subject to a model risk due, e.g. to specification and estimation...

This paper investigates the inter-temporal relationship between banking profitability, competition and risk of a sample of Chinese commercial banks by employing several profitability and risk indicators and using Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) under a panel data framework over 2003-2009....

This paper proposes a model to conduct macro stress test of credit risk for the banking sector based on scenario analysis. We employ an original bank-level data set that splits bank credit portfolios in 21 granular categories, covering household and corporate loans. The results corroborate the...

Modern risk management systems were developed in the early 1990s to provide centralized risk measures at the top level of financial institutions. These are based on a century of theoretical developments in risk measures. In particular, value at risk (VAR) has become widely used as a statistical...

Stress tests with handpicked scenarios might misrepresent risks either because dangerous scenarios are not considered or because the scenarios considered are too implausible. To overcome these two pitfalls we propose a systematic search for the worst case within a relative entropy ball of...