Empirical research over the last decade has uncovered predictive relationships between the slope of the yield curve and subsequent real activity and inflation. Some of these relationships are highly significant, but their theoretical motivations suggest that they may not be stable over time. We...

Sovereigns effectively provided the function of guarantor-of-last resort in response to the 2008/09 banking crisis, and recent bank funding challenges have led to renewed calls for explicit sovereign bank debt guarantees. The present paper focuses on the interconnections between the values of...

We apply the method of constrained asset share estimation (CASE) to test the mean-variance efficiency (MVE) of the stock market. This method allows conditional expected returns to vary in relatively unrestricted ways. The data estimate reasonably the price of risk, and, in some cases, the MVE...

We perform maximum likelihood estimation of a model of international asset pricing based on CAPM. We test the restrictions imposed by CAPM against a more general asset pricing model. The "betas" in our CAPM vary over time from two sources -- the supplies of the assets (government obligations of...

We apply the method of constrained asset share estimation (CASE) to test the mean-variance efficiency (MVE) of the stock market. This method allows conditional expected returns to vary in unrestricted ways, given investor preferences. We also allow conditional variances to follow an ARCH...

We propose and implement a Wald test of the international capital asset pricing model. Ex post asset returns are regressed on asset supplies. CAPM requires that the matrix of coefficients from a regression of n rates of return on n asset supply shares be proportional to the covariance matrix of...

The paper investigates the information content of yield curves regarding future inflation, using the example of the G-7 countries. The empirical results show substantial variation of results across countries, and a significant information content is identified for the United States, the United...