Macroeconomic Modelling has undergone radical changes in the last few years. There has been considerable innovation in developing robust solution techniques for the new breed of increasingly complex models. Similarly there has been a growing consensus on their long run and dynamic properties, as...

Of all the institutional arrangements for monetary union in Europe, the fiscal convergence criteria have proved the most difficult to achieve and the most controversial because of their presumed deflationary impact on economies already suffering high unemployment. This paper examines what fiscal...

This paper analyses four popular themes in the debate about the transition to monetary union: (a) fiscal discipline creating gains in credibility; (b) there being perceptible risk of a bail out for the highly indebted countries; (c) budgets being successfully cut to the required 3% limit in...

This paper examines the potential consequences of imposing a ‘stability pact’ on the fiscal convergence criteria for monetary union. Various versions of the stability pact are possible. We examine the consequences of reducing the target deficit ratio to 1% and of refundable fines for those...

I: Expectations -- 1. Optimal Stabilisation Policies under Perfect Foresight -- 2. Towards the Resurrection of Macroeconomic Policies -- 3. Optimal Feedback and Feedforward Stabilisation of Exchange Rates, Money, Prices and Output -- II: Uncertainty -- 4. Adaptive Econometric Forecasting using...