This Paper presents new evidence on the determinants of unemployment duration for men and women in Britain in the 1990s, using a nationally representative data set. It examines the impact of individual and local labour market characteristics on the probability of unemployment spells ending with...

We carry out a large-scale investigation of technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market, using daily data over a maximum of forty years for thirty developed and emerging market currencies. Employing a stepwise test to safeguard against data-snooping bias and examining over 21,000...

We study the role of domestic and global factors on payoffs of portfolios built to mimic carry, dollar carry and momentum strategies. We construct domestic and global factors from a large dataset of macroeconomic and financial variables and find that global equity market factors render strong...

Using annual data spanning two centuries for dollar-sterling and franc-sterling real exchange rates, the authors find strong evidence of mean-reverting real exchange rate behavior. Using simple, stationary, autoregressive models estimated on prefloat data, they easily outperform nonstationary...

This paper utilizes previously unpublished, weekly U.K. interest-rate data from the Bank of England to estimate and test a variety of alternative models of the term structure of interest rates. The rational expectations model is tested and rejected (using an extension of the Campbell-Shiller...

In this paper we propose a test of the hyperinflation model of money demand, which is valid under any assumption concerning agents' expectations, subject only to the restriction that forecasting errors are stationary. It is also demonstrated that highly efficient estimates of the model can be...

This paper attempts to provide some answers to a number of related questions. Has the European Monetary System reduced (real or nominal, bilateral or effective) exchange rate volatility? If so, has this been at the expense of increased interest rate volatility? How important have capital...

We examine the view that the recent East Asian crisis was precipitated by bursting asset price bubbles which had been fuelled by strong capital inflows which were largely the result of a moral hazard problem in financial intermediation, and was exacerbated by a vicious cycle of asset price...