type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>Ordinary fan charts consist of symmetric marginal forecast intervals, and do not take into consideration the concrete loss function of the user of the forecast. The note shows how to build fan charts that have exact joint coverage even under asymmetric loss,...</p>

In this paper, we put dynamic stochastic general equilibrium DSGE forecasts in competition with factor forecasts. We focus on these two models since they represent nicely the two opposing forecasting philosophies. The DSGE model on the one hand has a strong theoretical economic background; the...

This paper estimates variants of a small-scale New Keynesian model using observations on inflation, inflation expectations and nominal interest rates. We ask whether those variables alone can tell us something about the time series properties of real marginal costs.