We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report that the contribution of real-time macroeconomic data to ex ante stock return...

We compare forecasts of stock market volatility based on real-time and revised macroeconomic data. To this end, we use a new dataset on monthly real-time macroeconomic variables for Germany. The dataset covers the period 1994-2005. We use statistical criteria, a utility-based criterion, and an...

We examined the link between international equity flows and US stock returns. Based on the results of tests of in-sample and out-of-sample predictability of stock returns, we found evidence of a strong positive (negative) link between international equity flows and contemporaneous...

We argue that the use of publicly available and easily accessible information on economic and financial crises to detect structural breaks in the link between stock returns and macroeconomic predictor variables improves the performance of simple trading rules in real time. In particular, our...

We use a real-time forecasting approach to study the predictability of excess returns on a benchmark Euro Area real-estate index. The real-time forecasting approach accounts for the fact that, in real time, an investor forecasts returns under conditions of model instability and model...

Abstract It is often argued that the globalisation of the world economy might have contributed to an increased instability of real economic activity, in particular for small open economies. At the same time, there is evidence that the volatility of real economic activity might in fact have been...

Summary The paper uses German annual data covering the period 1969-2000 to present evidence on the link between aggregate inflation and the skewness of the distribution of relative price changes. Our empirical results are mixed. Our regression-based analyses suggest that the skewness of the...

The paper uses German annual data covering the period 1969-2000 to present evidence on the link between aggregate inflation and the skewness of the distribution of relative price changes. Our empirical results are mixed. Our regression-based analyses suggest that the skewness of the distribution...