Any security’s expected return can be decomposed into its “carry” and its expected price appreciation, where carry is a model-free characteristic that can be observed in advance. While carry has been studied almost exclusively for currencies, we find that carry predicts returns both in the...

This paper investigates the ability of the adaptive learning approach to replicate the expectations of professional forecasters. For a range of macroeconomic and financial variables, we compare constant and decreasing gain learning models to simple, yet powerful benchmark models. We find that...

Although the effects of economic news announcements on asset prices are well established, these relationships are unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011....

We examine the impact of news about Greece and news about a Greek bailout on bank stock prices in 2010 using data for 48 European banks. We identify the twenty days with extreme returns on Greek sovereign bonds and categorise the news events during those days into news about Greece and news...

Using a large panel of firms across the world from 1991-2006, we show that the median foreign firm has lower idiosyncratic risk than a comparable U.S. firm. Country characteristics help explain variation in the level of idiosyncratic risk, but less so than firm characteristics. Idiosyncratic...

Empirical evidence shows that macroeconomic fundamentals have little explanatory power for nominal exchange rates. On the other hand, the recent ‘microstructure approach to exchange rates’ has shown that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flows....

The paper examines the impact of several stock market price indices and macroeconomic variables on the Thai stock market, using a GARCH-M model and monthly data (1988M1-2004M12). We find that (a) changes in returns in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia before the 1997 crisis, and changes in...

Pippenger (2011a) proposed a solution to the longstanding forward-bias puzzle that attracted several comments, to which he has recently replied (Pippenger, 2011b). In this rejoinder it is argued that the points Pippenger raises in defence of his solution do not effectively rebut the concerns...

Using bottom-up information from corporate financial statements, we examine the relation between aggregate investment, future equity returns, and investor sentiment. Consistent with the business cycle literature, corporate investments peak during periods of positive sentiment, yet these periods...

We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all...