Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls....

This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals' expectations vary considerably as they generally...

Based on expectations data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), we construct a real-time proxy for expected term premium changes of US long-term Treasury bonds. We then investigate the economic drivers of these subjective term premium expectations at the level of individual...

Innerhalb des Euroraums haben sich in den letzten Jahren erhebliche Zinsspreads entwickelt. Der Autor vertritt die Auffassung, dass diese Spreads die Entwicklung der wirtschaftlichen Fundamentaldaten nachzeichnen. Auf diese Fundamentaldaten und entsprechend auch auf die Spreads habe die Finanz-...