Summary Following standard real business cycle theory, long run economic growth and short run business cycle fluctuations are attributed to a series of productivity shocks propagated by the economic system which is assumed to be in a rational expectations equilibrium. Characterizing the...

Summary This paper considers popular methods for the quantification of survey expectations. We investigate the asymptotic properties of two variants of the probability approach originally suggested by Carlson and Parkin (1975). It is argued that the traditional method can be interpreted as an...

We study the business cycle in the US over 1959–2011 using a large-dimensional multi-level factor model. We find notable asymmetries over the business cycle, but the bulk of common dynamics is stable over time. The comovement among variables is larger in recessions compared to expansions. The...

We propose several tests for rational bubbles and investigate their power properties. The focus lies on the case where bubble detection is reduced to testing for a unknown change from a random walk to an explosive process. In simulations, a Chow-type break test exhibits the highest power and...

This paper points to some of the facts that have emerged from 20 years of research into the analysis of unit roots in panel data, an area that has been heavily influenced by two studies, IPS (Im, Pesaran, and Shin, 2003) and LLC (Levin et al., 2002). Some of these facts are known, others are...

[fre] Estimation de modèles non linéaires sur données de panel par la méthode des moments généralisés . par Jorg Breitung et Michael Lechner . Nous montrons que la démarche de la méthode des moments généralisés (MGG) est un outil intéressant aussi bien pour obtenir les propriétés...

We study a matched sample of individual stock market forecasts consisting of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts. This allows us to test for the quality of forecast quantification methods by comparing quantified qualitative forecasts with actual quantitative forecasts. Focusing mainly on...