The uncovered interest rate parity equation is the cornerstone of most models in international macro. However, this equation does not hold empirically since the forward discount, or interest rate differential, is negatively related to the subsequent change in the exchange rate. This forward...

This paper illustrates that evaluating alternate abatement polices that affect the growth path of an economy on the basis of their effects on asset valuation may not be welfare enhancing. We show that the class of abatement polices considered in the integrated assessment literature are robust...

We propose a new method of testing asset pricing models that relies on using quantities rather than prices or returns. We use the capital flows into and out of mutual funds to infer which risk model investors use. We derive a simple test statistic that allows us to infer, from a set of candidate...

In the data, asset prices exhibit large negative moves at frequencies of about 18 months. These large moves are puzzling as they do not coincide, nor are they followed by any significant moves in the real side of the economy. On the other hand, we find that measures of investor's uncertainty...

Practitioners have long tried to exploit the predictability of the option implied volatility smile. Motivated by the recent developments in the literature focusing on market-based option pricing arguments, this paper proposes the introduction of trading volume into a vector autoregressive (VAR)...

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic announcements on the high-frequency behavior of the observed implied volatility skew of S&P 500 index options and VIX. We document that macroeconomic announcements affect VIX significantly and slope at a lesser extent. We also find evidence that...

The Gain–Loss-Ratio, proposed by Bernardo and Ledoit (2000), can either be used as a performance measure on a market with known prices or to derive price intervals in incomplete markets. For both applications, there is a considerable theoretical drawback: it reaches infinity for nontrivial...

This paper develops a model of exchange rate dynamics that takes into account positions in foreign and domestic equities in addition to “standard” short-term riskless securities. The modeling of cross-country stock holdings is motivated by evidence that a large and ever-increasing proportion...

This paper considers the role of high-frequency trading in a dynamic limit order market. Fast traders׳ ability to revise their quotes quickly after news arrivals helps to reduce the inefficiency that is rooted in the risk of being picked off, which increases trade. However, their presence...

Christophe et al. (2010) find evidence of abnormal short activity prior to analyst downgrades and argue that short sellers may be violating SEC insider-trading laws by trading on information obtained from analysts about upcoming downgrades. However, observing abnormal shorting prior to...